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Posts Tagged ‘Jon Hulburd’

Daily Kos- by kos

Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 11:20:03 AM PDT

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines)

Ben Quayle (R) 44
Jon Hulburd (D) 46

Yeah, that was a real WTF moment for us in this open seat being vacated by conservative icon John Shadegg. Completely unexpected. Sure, the idiot son of the idiot former vice president is a bit of a joke, but this is a solidly conservative district, one in which McCain won 57-42.

Now there is no intensity gap here. Or better put, there is a gap, but it goes the other way — the composition of this sample is 52-40 McCain, or three points more Democratic than in 2008. That’s likely part of the “favorite son” gap we’ve seen in polling in Illinois, Delaware, Hawaii and Alaska — in which the presidential ticket boosted partisan performance for the home-state candidates.

In any case, Democrats have a legitimate and serious pickup opportunity in this district. The reason is that Quayle is having a bitch of a time locking down moderates and independents.

Hulburd is winning independents 50-36, and moderates 66-27. While only eight percent of Obama voters are defecting to Quayle, 18 percent of McCain voters are going with Hulburd. And even 19 percent of Republican voters are choosing the Democratic candidate, likely an artifact of a nasty primary. In fact, Quayler’s favorable/unfavorable rating of 34/52 is shockingly bad for a first-time House candidate, and incudes 30 percent unfavorables from Republican voters, and 29/51 from independents. Hulburd is at 33/20, including 37/16 from independents. Yet given that half of voters have no idea what to think of Hulburd, he may be benefiting from an “anyone but Quayle” dynamic.

John McCain is winning this district easily in his current bid for re-election, 53-39, further suggesting that the sample isn’t too Democratic. And most undecideds come from 18 to 29 year olds, suggesting Hulburd has the best chance to grown his support past 50 percent.

Those of you who voted to poll this district last week, great call. I wouldn’t have chosen this one, but I’m glad you did.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/18/911384/-AZ-03:-Shocking-Democratic-pickup-opportunity

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Religion and Politics 2010: Election News Brief

Election News Briefs

Arizona Politics Get ‘Dirty’: Ben Quayle’s Website Controversy

The Pew Forum- On Religion & Public Life

Sept. 9, 2010 |

Politics in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district sure are getting “Dirty.”

Jon Hulburd, the Democratic candidate in the district, recently released a radio spot on three Christian radio stations and a conservative talk radio station accusing his Republican opponent, Ben Quayle, of contributing to TheDirty.com, a racy website about Arizona nightlife, according to Politico.  In the ad, a woman who identifies herself as “a Christian and a mom” says that Quayle helped create “one of the most offensive websites I’ve ever seen.”

Quayle, who is the son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, was first confronted with accusations of writing for TheDirty.com during the primary campaign. Just weeks before the Aug. 24 primary, Nik Richie, the founder of the Scottsdale, Ariz.-based website whose legal name is Hooman Karamian, told Politico that Quayle was one of the original contributors to the site when it launched in 2007 as DirtyScottsdale.com. Richie claimed that Quayle published eight to 10 blog posts on the site under the alias “Brock Landers” – the name of a fictional porn star from the 1997 movie “Boogie Nights.”

Politico reported that Quayle, who campaigned as a “family-values conservative” according to the Associated Press, initially denied any involvement with the website. But one day after dismissing the accusations, Quayle changed his story, telling Phoenix’s 12 News that he “just posted some comments there to try to drive some traffic” but could not remember what those comments were, according to Politico.

The day after Quayle won the Republican nomination, an Arizona Republic blog reported that Hulburd had released a statement that called the general election a race “between Jon Hulburd and Brock Landers,” identifying Quayle by his alleged alias.

The controversy seems unlikely to fade in the coming months, with Democrats eager to put Quayle on the defensive in the Republican-leaning district, according to The Arizona Republic. On Sept. 8, the Quayle campaign began running an ad on Phoenix radio stations criticizing Hulburd’s positions on social and moral issues. Among other things, the ad accuses Hulburd of using his “massive wealth to fund abortion lobbies,” Politico reports. The ad also notes that Quayle is pro-life and that he “strongly supports constitutional protection of marriage between a man and a woman.”

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