AZ-03: Shocking Democratic Pickup Opportunity

Daily Kos- by kos

Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 11:20:03 AM PDT

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines)

Ben Quayle (R) 44
Jon Hulburd (D) 46

Yeah, that was a real WTF moment for us in this open seat being vacated by conservative icon John Shadegg. Completely unexpected. Sure, the idiot son of the idiot former vice president is a bit of a joke, but this is a solidly conservative district, one in which McCain won 57-42.

Now there is no intensity gap here. Or better put, there is a gap, but it goes the other way — the composition of this sample is 52-40 McCain, or three points more Democratic than in 2008. That’s likely part of the “favorite son” gap we’ve seen in polling in Illinois, Delaware, Hawaii and Alaska — in which the presidential ticket boosted partisan performance for the home-state candidates.

In any case, Democrats have a legitimate and serious pickup opportunity in this district. The reason is that Quayle is having a bitch of a time locking down moderates and independents.

Hulburd is winning independents 50-36, and moderates 66-27. While only eight percent of Obama voters are defecting to Quayle, 18 percent of McCain voters are going with Hulburd. And even 19 percent of Republican voters are choosing the Democratic candidate, likely an artifact of a nasty primary. In fact, Quayler’s favorable/unfavorable rating of 34/52 is shockingly bad for a first-time House candidate, and incudes 30 percent unfavorables from Republican voters, and 29/51 from independents. Hulburd is at 33/20, including 37/16 from independents. Yet given that half of voters have no idea what to think of Hulburd, he may be benefiting from an “anyone but Quayle” dynamic.

John McCain is winning this district easily in his current bid for re-election, 53-39, further suggesting that the sample isn’t too Democratic. And most undecideds come from 18 to 29 year olds, suggesting Hulburd has the best chance to grown his support past 50 percent.

Those of you who voted to poll this district last week, great call. I wouldn’t have chosen this one, but I’m glad you did.

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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/18/911384/-AZ-03:-Shocking-Democratic-pickup-opportunity

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Mid-Term Elections Still In Play, With Dems Gaining Momentum

Crooks & Liars- By Susie Madrak

October 04, 2010 09:00 AM

Some good news for the Democrats. So taking over the House and the Senate isn’t quite as easy as Republicans hoped – or as Democrats feared. The situation is still fluid, and Dems need to keep up the pressure:

WASHINGTON — Republicans carry substantial advantages as they move into the final month of the fall campaign, but the resilience of vulnerable Democrats is complicating Republican efforts to lock down enough seats to capture the House and take control of the unsettled electoral battleground.

By now, Republicans had hoped to put away a first layer of Democrats and set their sights on a second tier of incumbents. But the fight for control of Congress is more fluid than it seemed at Labor Day, with Democrats mounting strong resistance in some parts of the country as they try to hold off a potential Republican wave in November.

The chances of a Republican takeover in the House remain far greater than in the Senate, according to a race-by-race analysis by The New York Times. But enough contests remain in flux that both parties head into the final four weeks of the campaign with the ability to change the dynamic before Election Day.

Races typically tighten in the final month as voters on both sides become more engaged, and the political climate is no more favorable for Democrats than it has been all year, with no substantial signs of improvement in the economy or the outlook for unemployment.

Yet even as spending from outside groups is threatening to swamp many Democratic candidates, Republican strategists estimated that only half of the 39 seats they need to win control of the House were definitively in hand.

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Republicans Are Willing To Let This Country Collapse!

Republicans Clearly Are Willing to Let This Country Collapse if They Think it Will Win Them Elections

By Doug Kreeger, AlterNet. Posted February 4, 2009.

It is abundantly clear that the Republican leaders are going to do everything to prevent Obama and the Dems from doing anything constructive.

Last week, we witnessed how the Republicans will help serve this country in the worst crisis since the Great Depression.

By standing together in opposition to the stimulus package, they showed the world that they haven’t at all joined the momentum of the new administration, rather they are still playing politics and are focused on the 2010 elections. Their objections to the stimulus have nothing to do with trying to solve this crisis.

I was always struck during the Bush Error (otherwise known as Era), that the axis of evil title was slapped onto any entity not aligned with their inane response to any issue they faced. Whether it was Iraq or Hurricane Katrina, time and time again we were expected to take their word through blind faith and or outright deceit.

Now the remaining cronies have sunk to an unthinkable new low. It is abundantly clear that the Republican leaders are going to do everything to prevent anything constructive from happening. They will be sure our damaged nation does not get fixed on Barack Obama’s watch, the public be damned.

Last week, Obama’s plans were debated in Congress. His goal of creating 2 million to 3 million jobs in the next two years through a massive rebuilding program of our crumbling infrastructure, was countered by the Republicans’ revised stimulus plan. Their plan was not detailed beyond more tax cuts.

Here’s the catch: The Republicans said their plan would create 6 million jobs. Really. Remember “Mission Accomplished”? Just saying something doesn’t make it true.

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