As Voters Come Home To Obama, 2012 Begins To Look A Lot Like 2008

Politicususa

By Jason Easley  February 8, 2012

A comparison of recent polls in Ohio, Michigan, and Virginia with 2008 polling shows that voters who supported President Obama last time are starting to come back home to him in 2012.

The Quinnipac Poll revealed a five point jump for President Obama over the past month in the state. In December, Romney narrowly led Obama 44%-42%. In the past month the Republican frontrunner (sort of) has gained one point in the state while Obama swung into the lead. The partisan split in the vote is high. Eighty five percent of Republicans support Romney and ninety three percent of Democrats support Obama, but the big shift towards Obama has been with two groups of voters.

While Romney has stayed at a flat 41%, President Obama gained four points and now leads with Independents, 45%-41%. The biggest swing for Obama has come with women. Romney led Obama among women, 45%-43% in December, but this month the president gained seven points, while Romney lost two, and took a 52%-40% lead.

The race in Virginia between Obama and Romney is starting to look a lot like the 2008 battle for the state between Obama and McCain. Days before the 2008 election Obama led McCain 50%-46%. Obama led McCain with women, 53%-44%. Currently, Obama leads Romney with women 52%-40%. In 2008, McCain led with white voters 57%-40%. In 2012, Romney has improved on McCain’s support with white voters by one point, 54%-36%. Obama’s support among African-Americans in the state has actually grown three points since 2008. Obama has gone from 88% support to 91% support. In 2008, McCain led Obama with 45%-44% Independents, while Obama leads Romney 45%-41% with this same category. In Michigan Obama’s lead over Romney (48%-40%) is much smaller than his lead over McCain was (55%-37%), but the trend with Independents is the same. In the weeks before the 2008 election in Michigan, President Obama led with Independents, 52%-35%. In 2012, Obama has rebounded in the past month to hold a 42%-32% lead with Independents over Mitt Romney. In Ohio some of the same trends are just beginning to emerge as Obama went from a two point lead over Romney (44%-42%) in mid-January to a seven point lead by early February (49%-42%).

Whether it is in Ohio, Michigan, or Virginia, the 2012 race between Obama and Romney is starting to look a lot like the 2008 contest between Obama and McCain. Republicans need a nominee who can shift Independents into their column, and improve upon McCain’s performance with young voters and women. Instead, what they may end up with is a weaker version of John McCain.

The combination of an improving economy, a bruising Republican primary, and Mitt Romney’s own lack of appeal as a candidate have likely all contributed to Obama’s turn around. It is only February, but this is a trend that bears watching. If 2012 state level polling data continues to mirror 2008, then President Obama should face very little difficulty winning a second term.

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Obama, The Guy With The Purple Shirt, And A Promise Kept

by BarackObamadotcom on Feb  6, 2012

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Obama Administration Defends Contraception Rule Amid Mounting Criticism

First Posted: 02/ 8/2012  9:45 am Updated: 02/ 8/2012 10:39 am

Reuters- By Susan Heavey

WASHINGTON–The Obama administration is willing to work with Catholic universities, hospitals and other church-affiliated employers to implement a new policy that requires health insurers to offer birth control coverage, a top adviser to the president’s re-election campaign said on Tuesday.

David Axelrod, a senior campaign adviser to President Barack Obama, said the administration had heard the Roman Catholic Church’s concerns and never intended to “abridge anyone’s religious freedom.”

But he gave no sign that the administration would reverse course under intensifying pressure from church leaders and political heat from Republican presidential candidates.

“This is an important issue. It’s important for millions of women across this country. We want to resolve it in an appropriate way, and we’re going to do that,” Axelrod said in remarks on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program.

White House spokesman Jay Carney also sought to diffuse criticism from church leaders, telling reporters later on Tuesday the administration would work with religious organizations “to see if the implementation of the policy can be done in a way that allays some of those concerns.”

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What’s Next For Mitt Romney? Besides Pathetic Excuses And Desperation?

Is Mitt Romney about to unleash the hounds on Rick Santorum? (Jim Young/Reuters)

Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 09:30 AM PST

By- Barbara Morrill – Daily Kos

Following last night’s utter humiliation at the hands of Republican voters in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, Mitt Romney—formerly known as “inevitable”—and his team are trying to regroup. Which means advisors are out downplaying Romney’s crushing defeats and laying the groundwork for what looks to be a pathetic attack against Rick Santorum:

Romney’s political analyst also previewed what will likely emerge as the former governor’s latest critique of his Republican challengers, calling Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich “two peas in a pod.”

Fehrnstrom characterized the pair as “longtime Washington legislators who never really left Washington,” and argued their nomination would mean a general election between “two insiders” as they faced President Obama in November.

That would be as opposed to Romney who has spent the past four or five years desperately trying to become a Washington insider. And of course it ignores Romney’s real problem: the base hates him.

As for the Romney campaign plan to paint Santorum and Gingrich as “two peas in a pod,” good luck with that. Rick Santorum doesn’t carry the Gingrich baggage of multiple affairs, marriages, ethics violations, general assholery and a habit of shooting himself in the foot. What Santorum does have is the true right-wing craziness credentials that today’s Republican Party stands for. Credentials that a flip-flopping Romney has tried to embrace … but that isn’t fooling anyone (except the GOP establishment).

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Rick Santorum vs. Mitt Romney: Former Pa. Senator Looks To Cast Results As A Win For Conservatism

LAURIE KELLMAN 02/ 8/12 12:52 PM ETAssociated Press  via: Huff Post

WASHINGTON — Resurgent Rick Santorum said his sweep of three GOP contests earned his shoestring campaign $250,000 overnight, cash he needs to take his upstart bid for the Republican presidential nomination to Mitt Romney’s turf.

Santorum’s stunning victories Tuesday in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado marked his best performance thus far in the rollicking contest for the Republican presidential nomination – and Romney’s worst. The better-funded and organized former Massachusetts governor shrugged off his poor showing, but his losses were stinging reminders of a stubborn weakness: Romney’s inability to appeal to the conservatives at the base of the party.

It was far from clear, though, that Santorum would be able to turn his momentum into the millions of dollars he would need to overtake Romney. But in the hours after his victory, Santorum said he’s finally being heard and supported by conservatives who want a clear contrast to President Barack Obama.

“I think last night we raised a quarter of a million dollars online,” Santorum told CNN’s “Starting Point” the morning after. “We are going to have the money we need to make the case we want to make.”

That overnight haul was part of a larger two-day take of $400,000, Santorum told reporters following an event Wednesday near Dallas with a group of pastors.

And to take the fight to Romney’s virtual home states. On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Santorum said he’d debate Romney in Arizona, the home of a sizable Mormon population and a key patron, Sen. John McCain, the GOP presidential candidate in 2008. Also on Santorum’s travel schedule: Michigan, where Romney’s father was governor.

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